[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to C1 flares from Regions 3116 (N29, L=047) and Region 3123 (N27W74, Cao/beta). Slight growth was observed in Regions 3123 and 3124 (S36W42, Dro/beta). Regions 3122 (N25W50, Cro/beta) and 3119 (N29W88, Bxo/beta) were in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for low levels on 17-19 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 17-19 Oct due to high speed stream influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 17-19 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 540-606 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative throughout the period.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to continue through early to midday on 17 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Waning conditions are expected by late on 17 Oct. A return to nominal levels is likely on 18-19 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: CH HSS effects are expected to persist through early to midday on 17 Oct causing quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. A return to mostly quiet conditions is likely on 18-19 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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