[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed. Region 3122 (N26, L=326) produced the largest flare, a C5.9 at 20/1653 UTC. Region 3126 (S11W06, Csi/beta) decayed slightly and was inactive. Region 3127 (S23E17, Bxo/beta) grew in area and spot count. There was a broad area of dimming visible in SUVI 195 imagery starting at 21/0440 UTC near Region 3126 and extending to the NE of the region. However, no CME was detected with that event. A CME was noted in C2 imagery off the WNW limb starting near 21/0736 UTC, likely associated with old Region 3122 and not directed toward Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of C-class flares on 21-23 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a brief peak to high levels of 1,290 pfu at 20/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 21-22 Oct due to high speed stream influence. Normal to moderate levels are forecast for 23 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field ranged between 3-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from ~425-350 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at mostly ambient levels through the next 3-day period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled periods.

Forecast: Mostly quiet to isolated unsettled conditions are forecast for 21-23 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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