[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with three C-class flares from two different regions. Region 3140 (N26W03, Hsx/alpha) was responsible for a C1/Sf flare at 09/1331 UTC, as well as a C4/Sf flare at 09/2005. Associated with the C4 flare was a Type II radio sweep (est 1242 km/s) at 09/2000.

There was simultaneous flaring near S27E62, with associated ejecta emanating from that area. However, analysis determined this ejecta to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 3141 (N14E13, Eko/beta-gamma) was responsible for a C1/Sf flare at 09/1805 UTC, but was otherwise stable and inactive. New Region 3145 (N25E11, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive. The remaining numbered regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flare on 10-12 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels on 10-12 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to nominal levels. Total field strength steadily decreased to average near 5 nT, Bz ranged from 2 nT to -5 nT, solar wind speeds averaged around 350 km/s for most of the period, and Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at mostly background levels, with possible periodic, weak enhancements over the next three days (10-12 Nov) due to possible on-and-off again CH HSS activity.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic activity was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 10-12 Nov as a couple of small coronal holes transit through potentially geoeffective positions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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