[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3141 (N15W21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest event of the period, an impulsive M1/Sf flare (R1 - Minor) at 12/0018 UTC. Only minor changes were observed in the region over the past 24 hours. Region 3140 (N24W30, Dsi/beta) exhibited notable intermediate spot development. Region 3145 (N27W15, Bxo/beta) also had minor spot development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 12-14 Nov due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3141.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,140 pfu at 11/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 12-14 Nov. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to become enhanced due to significant flare activity from Region 3141.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected enhancements in the IMF. Total field ranged from 4-14 nT while the Bz component was between +12/-10 nT. Solar wind speeds exhibited a modest but consistent increase from ~350 km/s to ~500 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 12-13 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 14 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to isolated active levels on 12 Nov due to CH HSS activity. Unsettled levels are possible on 13 Nov as solar enhancements wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over 14 Nov.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation