[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3140 (N25W56, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 14/0044 UTC. The region had significant spot development among its intermediate and trailer regions. Region 3141 (N15E48, Ekc/beta) continued to slowly simplify over the past 24 hours. The remaining numbered regions only exhibited minor changes. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 14-16 Nov due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3140 and 3141.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 14-16 Nov. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to become enhanced due to significant flare potential from Regions 3140 and 3141.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested a transition from the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS to near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +6/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline and ended the period near 430 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to gradually return towards nominal levels on 14 Nov. By late on 15 Nov through 16 Nov, a more enhanced environment is expected due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions over 14 Nov through most of 15 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected late on 15 Nov through 16 Nov due to CH HSS influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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