[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with frequent C-class activity. Most of the activity was from the regions that recently rotated off the NW limb- including a pair of C5 flares. Region 3147 (S11E51, Hax/Alpha) was also responsible for C-class flares and is the largest spot group on the visible solar disk. The other regions were mostly stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on 18 Nov. Activity is expected to decrease 19-20 Nov with a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at ambient levels. Solar wind speed decreased from ~375-300 km/s. Total field ranged 2-7 nT and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT. There was an increase in density noted in DSCOVR data but the reliability is questionable as the same increase was not present on ACE. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast: A chance for enhanced conditions may return 18 Nov due to glancing influence from the 14th Nov CME event which was modeled to be just ahead of Earths orbit. Additional enhancements are expected 19 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influence which will continue into 20 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active period, are possible 18 Nov due to effects from the aforementioned 14 Nov CME event. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 19-20 Nov as a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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