[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a C4.2 at 29/1358 UTC flare from Region 3151 (S16W88, L=154) before it rotated beyond the west limb. Region 3152 (N27W20, Cro/beta) remained stable while increasing slightly in area.

A 19-degree long filament centered near S14E10 erupted from the Sun at 29/1650 UTC. Forecaster analysis/WSA Enlil modeling determined it to be a possible glancing blow at best on 04 Dec.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-flares through 02 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, peaking at 1,710 pfu at 29/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels through 02 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Positive polarity CH HSS effects continued to drive space weather in the near-Earth environment. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT and Bz underwent numerous southward deviations, reaching a maximum southward deviation of - 8 nT. Wind speeds, while suspect from the DSCOVR spacecraft, remained elevated to speeds at or near 600 km/s. The phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to last through 02 Dec due to the influences of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels while under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 30 Nov with continued CH HSS influences. CH HSS effects are expected to continue through the duration of the forecast (01-02 Dec), with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 01 Dec. Conditions are expected to settle to primarily unsettled to active levels by 02 Dec with a gradual return to background conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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