[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1/1N flare at 01/0721 UTC from Region 3152 (N27W32, Bxo/beta). There is a CME associated with this event, first visible in C2 imagery at 01/0800 UTC. This event is being further analyzed to determine if there the CME has an Earth-directed component at the time of this summary.

Old Region 3151 (S20, L=154) has contributed C-class activity from beyond the west limb. New Region 3153 (S18E80, Hkx/alpha) rotated onto the SE limb and has contributed C-class activity. Also numbered this period was Region 3154 (S37E05, Bxo/beta). This region has been inactive.

Other activity included two CMEs that occurred in close proximity of one another timewise-one off the north limb and the other off the northeast limb. The far northern CME is associated with a far-sided prominence-visible in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery near 01/0000 UTC. The source location of the CME off the northeast limb is inconclusive. However, analysis continues at the time of this writing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-flares through 03 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, peaking at 9,444 pfu at 30/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels through 03 Dec, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of positive polarity CH HSS effects. Total field strength gradually increased from 7 nT to 12 nT, then decreased to 6 nT for the last two hours of the summary period. Bz saw numerous southward deviations, reaching a maximum southward deflections of -10 nT. Wind speeds, while suspect from the DSCOVR spacecraft, remained elevated to speeds at ~600-650 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: A CH HSS solar wind regime is expected to last through 02 Dec due to the influences of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs. A return to more ambient-like conditions is expected by 03 Dec as the CH HSSs move out of geoeffective positions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels following the onset of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 01 Dec as CH HSS influence persists. CH HSS effects are expected to continue through 02 Dec, but are then expected to digress to mostly unsettled to active levels by 03 Dec.

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