[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3153 (S17E40, Eko/Beta-Gamma) remained the largest spot group on the visible solar disk, but was relatively quiet. Region 3154 (S38W39, Bxo/Beta) underwent significant decay and was quiet as well. Regions 3155 (N23W18, Dai/Beta) and 3156 (N25E46, Dao/Beta) both produced low level C-class flare activity while the former also exhibited substantial spot growth. Region 3157 (N16E67, Dao/Beta) produced an impulsive M1 flare at 03/1741 UTC, the largest of the period, with Type-II radio emissions. Region 3158 (N24E13, Cro/Beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flare activity, and a chance for M-flares, over 04-06 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 17,400 pfu observed at 03/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 03-05 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated continued, but weakening positive polarity CH HSS influence this period. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from initial values around 575 km/s to around 500 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength increased slightly from 3-4 nT to an average of 6 nT and the Bz component ranged +/- 5 nT. Phi was variable between solar sectors.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue to wane over 04 Dec, with background solar wind conditions expected to prevail on 05-06 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under waning positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 04 Dec under waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 05-06 Dec under a nominal solar wind regime.

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