[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3153 (S16E13, Fkc/beta) remained the largest spot group on the visible disk. Despite its size, it was fairly inactive, producing only minor C-class enhancements. The remaining 4 regions were all inactive. Region 3155 (N22W44, Dao/beta) lost many intermediate spots while beginning to simplify. Region 3156 (N24E23, Hsx/alpha) was also in decay, losing nearly all its trailing spots. Region 3157 (N17E41, Cao/beta) decayed slightly but did contribute a few low-level C-class flares. Region 3158 (N24W13, Dai/beta) grew in area and gained additional spots, with penumbra beginning to form on its poles.

A filament eruption was observed near N30E00. This event was likely associated with a large area of dimming near center disk in SDO/AIA 193 imagery roughly between 05/21-06/03 UTC. However, no associated CME was detected in LASCO C2 or STEREO imagery.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flare activity, and a chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor) and slight chance of X-class flares (R3-Strong), through 08 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 06-08 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a decrease to nominal conditions. Wind speeds dropped from just over ~500km/s to 400 km/s. Total magnetic field was steady around 4-5 nT. The Bz component did not undergo significant southward deviations. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Near background solar wind conditions are expected on 06 Dec and into the first half of 07 Dec. Late on 07 Dec a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated with its effects lasting through 08 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected through 06 Dec and the first half of 07 Dec as the solar wind environment recovers post-CH HSS. Late on 07 Dec, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS will likely increase geomagnetic conditions to active levels, then to G1 (Minor) storm levels early on 08 Dec.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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