[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Dec 12 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Dec 12 0123 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 December 2022

Solar activity was at low levels through the period. A total of 46 C-class flares were observed from Regions 3153 (S17, L=327, class/area Fko/1080 on 04 Dec ), 3155 (N23, L=026, class/area Dai/140 on 04 Dec), 3156 (N25, L=319, class/area Dao/220 on 03 Dec), 3157 (N16, L=305, class/area Esi/230 on 10 Dec), 3158 (N24, L=354, class/area Dai/110 on 05 Dec), 3161 (N26, L=312, class/area Bxo/020 on 09 Dec), 3162 (S13, L=239, class/area Hsx/070 on 10 Dec) and 3163 (S20, L=217, class/area Eso/140 on 11 Dec). During the period, numrous CMEs were observed, but none were detected to have Earth-directed components.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 05-07 Dec with a peak flux reading of 2,610 pfu observed at 05/1450 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 08-11 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active levels were observed on 07-09 Dec with an isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) reading at midday on 07 Dec. Positive polarity CH HSS influences were present on 05 Dec and negative polarity CH HSS influences were present on 07-10 Dec. Wind speeds reached a maximum reading of about 610 km/s late on 08 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 December - 07 January 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period. M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are possible on 11-31 Dec due to current and returning M-class producing regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 24-31 Dec and 01-03 Jan due to CH HSS influence. Low to moderate levels are expected on 12-23 Dec and 04-07 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 19-20 Dec, 22-31 Dec, 01 Jan and 03-06 Jan. Minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are possible on 22 Dec and 25-28 Dec. This activity is all due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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