[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3156 (N28W72, Bxo/beta) decayed as it rotated mostly out of view. Region 3157 (N16W56, Cso/beta) underwent decay in its trailer section. Region 3164 (S20W53, Bxo/beta) was stable and inactive. Region 3163 (S20E33, Eso/beta) underwent minor growth, but maintained a relatively simple bipolar alignment. Region 3166 (S08E26, Axx/alpha) underwent decay, but still managed a C3.0 flare at 12/1509 UTC. Region 3160 (N22W09, Hsx/alpha) was stable and inactive. New Region 3167 (N20E08, Dao/beta) was numbered and produced low-level C-class flares.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Low solar activity is expected to continue, with background X-ray flux nearly at C-class levels 13-15 Dec. Despite the number of active regions present, there is only a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days due to lack of complexity and low activity trends.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background 13-15 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength was predominantly 6-7 nT, while the Bz component varied in orientations, with a few short periods of southward deflection. Solar wind speed varied between mainly ~380-500 km/s but data was unreliable for portions of the period. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are anticipated to wane on 13 Dec, with a return to mainly a slow solar wind regime 14-15 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet 13-15 Dec, with an isolated unsettled period possible on 13 Dec as CH HSS influences continue, but weaken.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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