[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1/Sf flare at 20/1406 UTC from Region 3169 (N21E30, Esi/beta-gamma). C-class flare activity occurred from Regions 3169 and 3170 (S20E31, Bxo/beta). Slight decay was observed in Regions 3170 and 3166 (S08W84, Dao/beta) as well as the trailing spots of Regions 3169 and 3163 (S19W72, Dko/beta). Slight growth was observed in the leader spots of Region 3163. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 21-23 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal-moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 21 Dec. Moderate to high levels are likely on 22-23 Dec due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor) on 21-23 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Total field parameters were enhanced over the period ranging from 5-15 nT. The Bz component was variable. Solar wind speed was mostly in the 350-400 km/s range. Phi angle was mostly negative with a few deviations into the positive sector.

Forecast: A connection to a positive polarity CH HSS is expected on 21 Dec. HSS effects are expected to persist through 23 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 21 Dec due to CH HSS onset. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 22 Dec followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 23 Dec as HSS effects persist.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation