[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Dec 26 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Dec 26 0226 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 December 2022

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 20 Dec. Region 3169 (N19, L=116, class/area=Dho/290 on 21 Dec) produced an M1/Sf at 20/1406 UTC which was the largest event of the period. Low levels of solar activity and C-class flare activity were observed throughout the remainder of the period. A CME from 24 Dec was determined to have an Earth-directed component, and is expected to arrive on 27 Dec. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 24-25 Dec, and normal to moderate levels were observed on 17-23 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 23 Dec, and active levels on 19, 22, and 24 Dec, all due to CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled field activity were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 21 January 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the period with a slight chance for M-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26 Dec-03 Jan, and 20-21 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 27 Dec due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 24 Dec in addition to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Minor storms are expected again on 03 Jan and 19-20 Jan due to the influences of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Active conditions are expected on 28, 30-31 Dec and 04, 18 Jan. Quiet and quiet to unsettled activity are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period.

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