[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels following a pair of M-class flares (R1-Minor radio blackouts) during the period. The first event, an M2 flare, was observed at 27/0054 UTC from Region 3176 (N19E57, Dkc/beta). The second event was an M1 flare from Region 3169 (N23W52, Fkc/beta-gamma). Region 3176 continued to develop intermediate spots and grew slightly in overall areal coverage. Region 3169 appeared to develop a few additional trailer spots, but foreshortening hampered accurate analysis as it rotated closer to the western limb. Both regions were also responsible for several lower end C-class flares as well. Regions 3171 (N23W32, Cao/beta) and 3173 (N25E16, Hsx/alpha) were both stable and inactive. Regions 3172 (S36E00, Bxo/beta) and 3175 (S20E36, Cao/beta) both exhibited decay in overall spot count and areal coverage.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity will likely continue at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, and a slight chance for X-class flares, on 27-29 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period. Peak flux values reached 1,032 pfu at 27/1130 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next three days (27-29 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels through 29 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of the likely early arrival of the 24 Dec CME around midday, combined with possible +CH influence. Total magnetic field strength averaged near 7 nT, and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -10 nT for several hours at the beginning of the period. Wind speeds were over 550 km/s to begin the period, and only dropped to average near 540 km/s for the remainder of the period. Phi was mostly in a positive orientation.

Forecast: The combination of positive polarity CH HSS and CME enhancements are expected to continue through 28 Dec. A negative polarity CH HSS is forecast to potentially influence the near-Earth environment on 29 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, likely from the early arrival of the 24 Dec CME and a +CH HSS.

Forecast: Isolated G1 (Minor) levels are expected to continue through 27 Dec with ongoing CH HSS and CME effects. By 28 Dec, CME effects are expected to taper off, leaving lingering +CH HSS influence and quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely throughout the day. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return for 29 Dec as the positive polarity CH HSS moves out of its geoeffective position.

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