[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 29 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels again today following an isolated M1 flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) from a region just beyond the east limb. Region 3169 (N20W74, Dko/beta) appeared to show signs of decay as it made its way around the west limb. Region 3176 (N20E24, Dki/beta) lost some its intermediate spots as the leader and trailer began to separate. Region 3177 (S17E65, Dao/beta) rotated further onto the visible disk and exhibited growth in area and spots. This region was responsible for a few low-level C-class flares. New Region 3178 (S03W64, Cso/beta) was numbered during the period following rapid growth during the period. All remaining regions were unremarkable, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate HF radio blackouts) and a slight chance of an X-class (R3-Strong) event on 29-31 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,147 pfu at 28/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 29 Dec, with a chance for brief high levels. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated for 30 Dec, and a return to high levels is likely on 31 Dec due to new CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual return towards background levels. Total IMF strength averaged near 5-6 nT, while the Bz component saw only sporadic southward deviations as low as -6 nT. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 500-525 km/s (with some questionable higher DSCOVR instrument measurements) to near 440 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle remained in a positive sector.

Forecast: A slow but persistent return to background conditions is expected through 29 Dec. A possible CIR ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS could arrive late 29 Dec to early on 30 Dec, causing enhancements in the solar wind environment. CH HSS onset is most likely to occur on 30 Dec, with HSS influences continuing into 31 Dec. This CH appears to be a new feature, so no recurrence-based information is available, however, WSA-Enlil ambient model runs are estimating speeds of about 500 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Dec due to waning CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are anticipated, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, on 30-31 Dec in varying response to possible CIR arrival and expected CH HSS effects.

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