[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3191 (N12E64, Dai/beta) produced the strongest event of the period, a slow-rising M1.3 (R1-Minor) flare at 14/0209 UTC. No associated CME signature was observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery. The region continued to develop over the period with separation observed in the trailer spots and additional spots emerging among the intermediate spots. Region 3188 (S23E31, Dri/beta) was the only other region that exhibited growth, with some minor development in its intermediate spots. There were seven other spotted active regions on the visible disk but they were all either stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with the continued likelihood of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events through 16 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels after being slightly enhanced from activity beyond the SW limb early on 13 Jan.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 14-16 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels, but a chance for a threshold event remains a possibility for 14-16 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested weak influence from a negative polarity CH HSS, with a possible embedded transient. Total magnetic field strength was between 2-11 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -11 nT at 13/2014 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from ~355 km/s at the beginning of the period to ~510 km/s for the latter half of the period. Phi angle was mostly negative but many brief intervals of positive rotation were observed through the day.

Forecast: Enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely to return to ambient level over 15-16 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active conditions over 14 Jan and unsettled conditions on 15 Jan. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 16 Jan.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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