[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3190 (S15W08, Fki/beta-gamma) produced the strongest event of the period, a C6.7/Sf flare at 20/0152 UTC. The region along 3195 (N21W30, Bxo/beta) only exhibited minor changes. Regions 3194 (S24W24, Cao/beta), 3197 (N24E38, Bxo/beta) 3198 (N27E50, Cao/beta) and newly numbered 3199 (N16E70, Cao/beta) all saw slight development. The remaining five numbered spotted regions were in gradual decay.

A small, 5 degree long filament erupted near the SW limb at about 19/1500 UTC with a slow-moving CME detected in LASCO C2 imagery at 19/1548 UTC CME. Analysis of this CME determined no Earth-directed component was produced. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 20-22 Jan. There is a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) event all three days.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 20-22 Jan. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of weak transient influence. Total field strength ranged between 8-10 nT while the Bz component has been mostly neutral or positive with no significant periods of southward Bz observed in the past 24 hours. Solar plasma data from the DSCOVR spacecraft has been reporting anomalous values over 20 Jan.

Forecast: The solar wind is likely to remain enhanced on 20-22 Jan. Transient influences are expected to persist through 20 Jan with additional enhancements from a positive polarity CH HSS likely late on 20 Jan and persisting through 22 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under weak transient influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels over 20 Jan in response to CME effects. Active conditions are likely on 21-22 Jan due to CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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