[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3192 (N16W37, Fki/beta-gamma) produced the largest event of the period, a C8 flare at 22/1050 UTC. Region 3194 (S25E51, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) was the only region to exhibited overall growth. While Region 3190 (S15E37, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) continued to show decay among its trailer spots, the delta in its largest spot grew slightly. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 22-24 Jan. There is a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) event all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 22-23 Jan with a likely increase to moderate to high levels on 24 Jan due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Weak enhancements in the solar wind parameters are ongoing. Total field strength ranged between 3-7 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from ~500 km/s to near 450 km/s by the periods end. The phi orientation transitioned from variable to mostly positive in the latter half of the reporting period.

Forecast: The solar wind is likely to remain enhanced on 22-24 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS influence coupled with possible CME influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to isolated active levels over 22-24 Jan in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects coupled with possible CME influence.

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