[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2023 Jan 30 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jan 30 0142 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 January 2023

Solar activity was moderate. Region 3192 (N16, L=115, class/area, Fki/420 on 18 Jan) produced all of the M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M4.6/Sf flare at 25/1011 UTC. Additional events from Region 3192 included an M1.3/Sf flare at 25/1701 UTC, an M2.0 flare at 25/2235 UTC, and an M2.8 flare at 26/1306 UTC. Region 3192 rotated around the west limb on 26 January. There was a combined total of four M-class flares during the period, all at the R1 (Minor) level, and all from Region 3192.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled levels were observed on 23, 25-28 January, with quiet conditions on 24 and 29 January. Slightly enhanced field conditions were influenced by multiple, positive-polarity CH HSSs.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 January - 25 February 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2) on 30 Jan - 02 Feb. Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with the return of Region 3184 (S13, L=180) on 03 Feb and remain there throughout the rest of the outlook period, due to the flare potential of numerous returning M and X-class producing regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30-31 January in response to recent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 02-03, 07-10 February. Unsettled levels are likely on 04, 12-13, 18, and 22-24 February. Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

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