[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Several low level C-class flares were observed, with the largest being a C4 at 31/1100 UTC from Region 3207 (S13E65, Dai/beta). Several more spots became visible as the region rotated further into view. Region 3204 (N25W65, Dao/beta) exhibited slight growth in its leader spots, and was responsible for a few C-class flares as well. The remaining spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 31 Jan - 02 Feb, mostly due to activity from active regions on the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Jan, increasing to moderate to high levels by 01 Feb, continuing through 02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected slightly enhanced conditions. Total field strength was between 5-9 nT while Bz was variable. Solar wind speeds increased from ~375-500 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible on 31 Jan - 01 Feb following a weak disturbance in the solar wind environment. Late on 02 Feb, a negative polarity CH HSS is likely to become geoeffective, further enhancing solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 31 Jan-01 Feb. By 02 Feb, activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely, as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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