[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3211 (S17W63, Dao/Beta) produced a C7.8 flare at 06/1212 UTC, the largest of the period. This event was also the source of a CME, first seen emerging from the SW limb at 1236 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis and modeling have determined this particular CME to be off the Sun-Earth line. Regions 3213 (N29E07, Cri/Beta) and 3214 (N10E27, Dao/Beta) were responsible for other low-level C-class activity as they exhibited development. Region 3213 grew in overall size while gaining intermediate spots. Region 3214 grew in overall length while developing maturing penumbra on both its poles. Region 3216 (N24E61, Hsx/Alpha) continued to slowly rotate into view this period, but remained quiet. The remaining five active regions were relatively quiet and stable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over 07-09 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 07-09 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field was enhanced and mostly between 7-11 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly southward, undergoing several deflections of -6 to -9 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased during the period from an ambient like state to peaks near 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative while undertaking relatively brief excursions into a positive orientation.

Forecast: Negative polarity CH HSS influence is anticipated to persist through 07 Feb before beginning to wane over the course of 08-09 Feb. Additional enhancements to the solar wind environment are possible 07 Feb due to any glancing influence from the periphery of the 03 Feb CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected on 07 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS effects continue and any glancing effect from the 03 Feb CME event. Quiet to isolated unsettled periods are expected to prevail on 08 Feb and continue through 09 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS effects slowly wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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