[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 3229 (N25E67, Dso/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C9 at 16/2116 UTC. The rest of the flares were low level C-class events, mostly originating from Region 3229. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3226 (N10W12, Dhi/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable.

The filament eruption centered near N26W45, associated with a long-duration C9/1f flare at 16/1059 UTC, was analyzed with a potential grazing early on 19 Feb.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 17-19 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 19 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under CME influence. Total field reached 20 nT early in the period with the Bz reaching a maximum of -16 nT. By 16/1415 UTC, total field decreased to around 10-15 nT while the Bz component was mostly positive. Total field decreased once again to near 6 nT by 17/0230 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum near 510 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: Late on 17 Feb, an additional enhancement in the IMF is likely due to the anticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 15 Feb. Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to persist through 19 Feb. Additional CME influence on 19 Feb is possible with the 16 Feb CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME influence.

Forecast: Late on 17 Feb, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 15 Feb. Conditions are likely to increase to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 18 Feb. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 19 Feb due to waning CME effects combined with a possible grazing from the 16 Feb CME.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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