[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5 flare (R2; Moderate) event. Background flux levels continued at C-class levels and seven designated spot groups were present of the visible solar disk. Region 3234 (N24E54, Dkc/beta-gamma) was the source of most activity and produced M-class flares (R1; Minor) events, and the aforementioned M5.0 (R2) event at 21/2017 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed by the USAF RSTN at 21/2019 UTC in association with the M5 flare - indicative of a potential CME. Region 3234 was still too foreshortened for a confident analysis.

Region 3229 (N25E01, Esi/beta-gamma) underwent some decay and lost its delta configuration, but can now be classified as a mildly magnetically mixed group and produced isolated C-class or optical subflare activity. Region 3226 (N11W80, Hax/alpha) lost trailing spots as the period progressed, but did produce an early C-class flare. The remaining regions experienced minor changes or mild decay. Recent coronagraph imagery revealed a CME departing the northeast solar limb, first clearly observed at 21/2048 UTC - in likely association with the M5 flare. This event was modeled and determined to be off the Sun-Earth line. An additional CME was observed off the SSE limb starting around 22/0200 UTC. This CME appears to be in connection with a prominence eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery and is heading well south of Earths orbit. An eruptive filament near the northern portion of Region 3229 between ~22/0300-0430 UTC was observed in H-alpha imagery. However, no ejecta was detected in LASCO C2. No significant CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be primarily low, with a continuing chance of additional M-class flares (R1-R2) 22-24 Feb due primarily to the flare probability contributions of Regions 3234 and 3229.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 22-24 Feb, with a chance for high levels 23-24 Feb due to potential CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels, with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) event all three days due to the solar energetic particle event probability of mainly Regions 3234 and 3229.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued, but weakened CME passage influences. Total IMF strength continued to be elevated and spent the majority of the period hovering near 10 nT. The Bz component underwent a prolonged period of pronounced southward direction with a maximum deviation of -12 nT at 21/1030 UTC. Shortly afterwards it shifted northward for most of the remaining UTC-day. Solar wind speed varied primarily between 375-450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: CME passage is anticipated to end on 22 Feb, however influences from an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS are expected - likely resulting in increased solar wind speed. CH HSS influences are anticipated to continue, but weaken on 23 Feb. An additional far southern solar latitudinal, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to result in a mildly disturbed and enhanced solar wind field on 24 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active early in the reporting period due to CME influences. Mainly quiet conditions were observed during the later periods.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are likely on 22 Feb due to continuing, but weakening CME effects and solar wind speed escalations from CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 23-24 Feb as CH HSS effects continue, but wane.

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