Bob, I think that you are beginning to sense the reservations that
Adam Farson and I have had for the past year over the ability of Ten
Tec to design and produce a product of the performance and complexity
level required to be "the world's best amateur radio transceiver."
One need only compare the size, depth and track record of TT with such
competitors as Icom to see the incongruity of their goal of developing
the ORION with the reality of their decided lack of resource. TT has
one skilled, experienced DSP designer: Doug Smith, one of the best,
but still only one person. Icom has tens of Doug Smiths with
collectively hundreds of years spent successfully developing complex
computer-controlled transceivers for the amateur and
commercial/military markets.
While I admire the chutzpah of TT for tackling such a monumental
project as the ORION, I cannot feel any confidence that they have the
resources to do the job properly in a timely manner. And time is now
their deadly enemy.
Their amateur product line is now quite limited with no top-line
radio, such as the Omni series, to bring in serious sales dollars.
They have therefore suffered considerable reduction in cash flow for
quite some time now. Add to that the impact of the development costs
of the ORION. Every week that ORION shipments slip is one more week of
salaries and other development cost added to the ORION and one more
week of no income from ORION shipments. They are getting further and
further "behind the power curve" so to speak. Clearly, TT is reluctant
to focus on this thus they say little to their customer base. The real
reasons are hardly flattering.
At some point, the cost of sales for the ORION plus the cost of
product plus the prorata share of development costs will inevitably
produce a situation in which the ORION simply could not be sold for
sufficient profit to justify continuing its existence without a major
increase in price or sales volume or both.
The price is already near the top price of any amateur radio on the
market. Any increase in price would likely have a very negative impact
on sales volume. TT likes to present the ORION as a $3300 radio, which
it can be to the prior TT owner of an Omni, etc. but to the new non-TT
potential buyer, the radio takes on a higher overall price if the
optional filters and other system components are purchased.
Regardless, the ORION will represent a major radio purchase for the
majority of potential buyers. This high-end market is, of course, much
smaller than that for the low and mid-priced models such as the Argo V
and the Jupiter.
As to the sales outlook, the ORION has thus far remained an almost
totally secret project to the amateur radio world in general. I have
seen no ads in the magazines, no previews, no publicity whatsoever
other than discussion on the TT reflector and the TT-sponsored
hamfest. On the other hand, a radio with this development cost
history cannot survive on the limited TT customer base alone,
considering as well that few TT customers are likely to discard their
current radios and spend $3K - $4K for a new ORION.
All this tells me that TT has probably been forced by time, dollar and
talent constraints to design the ORION around the analog front end
and basic IF of the Omni series, together with the Omni final
amplifier, by emulating the architecture of the PRO and PRO2: a basic
IF DSP core transceiver with a receiving front end down-converter and
a transmitter up-converter and final amplifier.
Faced with front-end performance of the Omni that is inadequate for
the goals of the ORION design, they have attempted to bandaid by using
additional narrow crystal roofing filters in the IF stages, a design
approach used by no other manufacturer because no other manufacturer
needs to do so.
The TT RX-340 has an excellent front end, but evidently the design was
deemed too expensive for the ORION so the "best of both worlds"
marketing strategy dictated that prior TT customers be made to feel
comfortable and confident with this new IF DSP approach by
incorporating the old faithful and familiar conventional crystal
filters. Evidently still more comforting will be needed since I now
read postings questioning whether the ORION "sound" will be the "warm
analog sound of past TT radios" or the crass harsh sound of digital,
such as the CD (which only has a frequency response from around 20 Hz
to over 20 KHz with negligible distortion).
This narrow roofing filter business, of course, adds further to the
cost of the radio and adds both design complexity and compromises
other aspects of performance. Since no other currently produced IF DSP
receivers for the commercial/military markets use any IF crystal
filters at all, the ORION stands alone and is almost by default
limited to the amateur market.
Considering that the ORION thus far evidently is intended primarily
for the current TT user base - there being no other visible marketing
efforts - the question arises "How can such a small market support
enough sales of an expensive, high-end transceiver to justify the
product?" What can be done, and when will it be done, to bring the
ORION to the general amateur market and thereby capture the sale
volume required to continue the product?
Add that to the daily increasing costs of the ORION and daily loss of
sales income, and it is very difficult not to extrapolate this to
either discontinuance of the product or if not, the ultimate failure
of the company or at the very least the management decision to leave
the amateur market. Sale of the amateur products division to a major
company with deep pockets like MFJ is not unthinkable if worse comes
to worse.
Time clearly is the enemy here. The ORION must ship almost immediately
to stem the cash flow loss, and it must be as nearly perfect as it can
be to meet the announced design goals that have been represented as
measured specifications. Shipping a "V0.9" just to get some billings
activity with the aim of upgrading the bugs out of the system "later
on" will likely doom the product out of the starting gate. That first
ARRL Lab report will be the criterion that many purchasers will apply
first.
So, to answer your request for comments, Bob, my concern is that TT
has bitten off far more than they can chew, are understaffed on the
project, possibly lack the required level of talent in either or both
the design engineering or software areas, and through this ongoing
delay in shipping product are slipping further and further behind the
power curve with less and less opportunity to play "catchup."
On top of all this is the fact that the Icom president has for some
time personally led the development of what he claims will be amateur
radio's most sophisticated transceiver available at a reasonable price
to amateurs. This is the rumored "IC-785" which is known to be
designed around front-end technology licensed from R&S. It is viewed
as the classic IC-781 - used in the thousands by commercial and
military - upgraded by the DSP experience and technology now resident
in the PRO-series of Icom transceivers.
If the ORION project continues to lag until the IC-785 becomes
available, then TT will face almost insurmountable competition both
in price and performance, not to mention that Icom radios in most eyes
are much more attractively packaged than the ORION appears to be.
Although mildly subjective, the impressive PRO2 color display when
compared one-on-one with the ORION mono display will gain many points
for the Icom.
This has been a rambling description of my thoughts about the ORION,
Bob. I wish them the best, but find it difficult to equate what I see
with their aspirations and performance thus far. And the evident
hostility within TT and with their customer base and the continuing
silence is just making a difficult situation much worse.
73/72, George
Amateur Radio W5YR - the Yellow Rose of Texas
In the 57th year and it just keeps getting better!
Fairview, TX 30 mi NE of Dallas in Collin county EM13qe
K2 #489 IC-765 #2349 IC-756 PRO #2121 IC-756 PRO2 #3235
----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert & Linda McGraw K4TAX" <RMcGraw@blomand.net>
To: <Tentec@contesting.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 9:43 AM
Subject: [TenTec] Public Opinion
> It is my understanding the ORION was to start shipping from Tentec
in
> perhaps late December. Delays of unknown origin have caused the
product to
> still be retained and to my knowledge, nothing has shipped.
>
> I've asked Tentec for some answers and prior to now have gotten very
little
> solid information other than my order acknowledgement of Dec 6.
That
> acknowledgement indicated the radio that I've ordered is expected to
come
> from the 3rd production lot scheduled for early March. Ok, so be
it, I can
> understand that and patiently wait.
>
> To that end, it appears that December production moved to January
and then I
> presume February, and January production moved to February and then
I
> presume March, and February moved to March and then to April and
March moved
> to April and then May? Did I count this correctly?
>
> I must admit, it gets a bit, no no a lot, disconcerting when one has
some
> $3500 hanging in the balance (oh it's not charged to the credit card
but I
> do have funds allocated) an no information as to when one might get
a radio.
> There's been no reasons disclosed for the delays that I am aware of.
I just
> wonder how long the Tentec community will hang in the balance to get
a
> radio. I'm sure there are valid reasons for the delays. I just
can't think
> of any reasons for not keeping the buyers, those having placed
actual
> orders, informed. I guess it must have to do with "saving face" or
"not
> letting the cat out of the bag" so to speak. Frankly, in my case, I
think
> the cat is about to suffocate.
>
> Candidly, I am giving very serious consideration to sending a Notice
of
> Cancellation. Any other folks thinking this way? To that end, I'll
keep
> the Tentec's that I have or go buy (oh dread) another brand of
radio.
>
> Anyone have feelings or thoughts on this?
>
> Private responses via e-mail will be honored and most appreciated,
both on
> my part and so as not to embarrass Tentec publicly.
>
> 73
> Bob, K4TAX
>
>
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