[TenTec] Shootout at OK Corral

[John Rippey <w3uls@3n.net>]

It's clear from the recent discussions on this reflector that we hams are 
now in the brave new world of software-driven transceivers and there's no 
turning back. In ten years, I suspect, there will be for sale few--if 
any--analog rigs with DSP add-ons that are so plentiful today. That's both 
good news and bad news.

The good news is that today's DSP chips can do stuff that couldn't be done 
a mere three or four years ago by those analog rigs.

The bad news is that transceivers using these chips cannot be built on the 
cheap. The chips are expensive, and even more expensive are the software 
design teams that make them work.

More bad news: It looks as if the financial challenge of building and 
marketing software-driven transceivers for hams has already resulted in 
three casualties--Japan Radio, Kenwood and Yaesu. There is no sign that any 
of these companies are able or willing to shoulder the heavy investment 
required to bring capable mostly-DSP rigs to the U.S. ham market. That 
leaves ICOM and Ten-Tec.

Now that Ten-Tec has entered the upper end of the U.S. ham market (which is 
actually the lower end of the international transceiver market) with the 
Orion, I hope it can come up with a product priced at about half of what 
the Orion costs that can compete with the IC-746 PRO, which has a single 
sophisticated 32-bit floating-point chip.

From my vantage, the battle for dominance of the U.S. ham market is 
rapidly coming down to just two gunslingers with cartridges left in their 
belts--ICOM and Ten-Tec. I don't think Ten-Tec releases sales numbers; 
ICOM, as I recall, had sales of $200+ million in 2002.

Above is all IMHO.

73,
John, W3ULS



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