>Those pmap pictures referenced by W4ZV, et al, only tell us where
>visible aurora is likely to occur (low energy precipitating electrons).
That's not what NOAA says about the plots Carl...
"How These Patterns Can Be Used
When displayed in geographic coordinates, the statistical patterns of
auroral particle power input provide a "best-guess" estimate of the
locations, geographic extents, and intensities of aurora at the time
of the satellite pass that provided the estimate of auroral activity.
Energetic auroral particles (primarily electrons) not only produce the
visible aurora but also greatly influence the properties of the
ionosphere and are connected with strong electrical currents (as much
as several million amperes) that flow in the ionosphere and connect
along the geomagnetic field to dynamo processes at high altitude in
the magnetosphere. Thus, this same display provides a similar "best-guess"
estimate of the geographic locations that may be subject to geomagnetic
fluctuations that result from electrical currents flowing in the
ionosphere, or the radio propagation paths that may be degraded because
of increased absorption of the radio signal by the disturbed ionosphere."
73, Bill W4ZV