Yesterday (May 8) the Space Weather Prediction Center released a new
prediction for Solar Cycle 24. You can read about it at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html .
Up until now the Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has carried two predictions -
one for a higher-than-average solar cycle and one for a
lower-than-average solar cycle - due to disagreement amongst the
scientists. Historical data suggests the longer the solar minimum
period, the lower the next cycle - and this is likely why the new
prediction is a single prediction for a maximum smoothed sunspot number
of only 90 or so, with the peak predicted in early 2013.
There still isn't unanimous agreement amongst the scientists, but
apparently enough of the "large cycle" guys have been swayed to the
"small cycle" side by this solar minimum period. Right now this solar
minimum period is running about average - our lifetimes have seen solar
minimum periods of lower-than-average duration based on all historical data.
The prediction also says solar minimum likely occured in December 2008,
so we'll see how accurate that is towards the end of the year (right now
we have smoothed sunspot number data for October 2008).
Carl K9LA
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