Leif Svalgaard of the W.W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory at
Stanford University -- a highly regarded solar physicist -- predicts
solar cycle 25 SSN of 128 +/- 10.
According to Svalgaard:
"This prediction is near the average (123±21) of the 6 (now 7) precursor
methods that seem to be preferred. The overall average is 132±47 (median 124).
The overall average is 132±47 (median 124). None of these numbers are
substantially different, so one could perhaps just go with the “Wisdom of the
Crowd”
(Aristotle, 350 BCE, “Politics”, III:xi; Galton, 1907)."
" All predictions that we consider have the underlying assumption that the
sun has not changed its behavior (its “spots” so to speak) on a timescale
of a few centuries (the Maunder Minimum may be a possible violation of
that assumption) and that there will be no such changes in the near future,
in spite of speculative suggestions like in Livingston et al. (2010) and
Svalgaard (2013)."
wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Prediction-SC-25-JSWSC-nl.pdf
73
Frank
W3LPL
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