-----Original Message-----
From: DavidC <davidc@bit-net.com>
>Is this pattern of activity extraordinary on the sun?
>Any reason to think something odd is afoot that might lead to even greater
>sustained activity?
Hi David,
No not really; in fact we have long been waiting for
this time, a real turn up in the activity to move cycle 23 of the
sunspots on up the next plateau, so to speak. We are at
a total sunspot count now of about 110, all together. At the
peak of this cycle, we ought to reach spot counts somewhere
above 160! Last cycle, Fall of '89 to later 90, we hit times of counts
as high as 195, and at one time a bit over 200 spots(July '90).
Then 10 meters, and the others, were open about the world
24 hours a day!! Look forward to those times returning.
Just a week or so ago, we were getting along with 70 to 80 spots
per day. Now we're on the way up to stay, at least, so I hope, hi!
I would expect we will be experiencing around 130 spots per
day by mid-Winter next, i.e. late next January. Then the
solar flux units will be pouring in around 175 or so. I also expect
the peak of cycle 23 to occur about a year after that, or
some time early or mid 2000. Now that is just my guess, based
upon when the "experts" say the last minimum occurred;
but see my next thought, hi.
I really think the bottom of cycle 22 was in October, not
May of 1996 as is being used to make forecasts. If my
idea is true, the peak might not come until late 2000 or
early 2001.
Anyway, it is going to be fun now for awhile!
73, Jim, KH7M
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