Tom,
Just because you don't operate CW doesn't mean there isn't a market
out
there for a CW amplifier.
I fully agree on that. The question is just how large that market is,
compared to the market for an amplifier without QSK capability but
slightly less expensive.
"More than 10,000 logs have been submitted for the CQ World Wide DX
Contest, according to Contest Director Bob Cox, K3EST.
That shows how very few hams engage in contesting! Assuming that one
third of all contesters worldwide participated in this most important
international contest, that would tell that about 30,000 hams worldwide
are at least occasional contesters - among a total ham population of
roughly two million!
Of course almost ALL contesters own at least one amp, while among the
general ham population maybe one in ten owns an amp. Even so,
contesters
are only a minor part of the potential customer base for amplifiers,
and
a very minor part for other equipment.
> In addition, Cox
reports that the number of CW logs have exceeded the number of
phone logs
for the first time in more than 20 years.
So this tells that CW is on the rise, at least among contesters. Indeed
I have noticed some more interest in CW among local hams than, say, 10
or 20 years ago. But I wonder what percentage of CW operators value QSK
capability high enough to be willing to spend extra money on it. Surely
many do, but just how many? In what little CW activity I ever had, I
never really missed QSK. And those CW ops I know all have non-QSK amps,
and seem to be happy.
I'm not saying that QSK is worthless - far from it! I just think (and I
fully admit the possibility of being wrong in this) that only a
relatively small percentage of hams really values QSK highly enough to
only buy an amp that features it.
Just tuning through the bands, I do hear about as much CW activity as
SSB activity. Also a lot of activity in a few specific digimodes. But
most of the CW activity I hear does not seem to be in QSK. Only rarely
do I hear a CW op breaking in and the other reacting to that. Most
activity is with very clear and explicit TX/RX changeover, suggesting
non-QSK operation. This is pretty much the same as VOX operation in SSB
- most SSB operators aren't using VOX.
Evidently there is still a LOT of interest in CW.
That's for sure. CW is far from being dead.
At least 5272 potential customers are out there.
Assuming that every ham who submitted a log for the CQWWDX contest
in CW
is a potential customer for a specific QSK-capable amp is very
misleading. Firstly, many CW ops seem to be happy with non-QSK amps.
Secondly, those who buy only QSK amps will still spread out among all
available QSK-capable amps, as customers. Thirdly, each ham might buy
one amp in his lifetime, or perhaps a few, but will hardly run and
buy a
new amp just because it has become available. So the actual sales of a
specific amp model to contesters, over its entire production run, will
be FAR lower than the number of active contesters. And more
importantly,
a LOT of hams who aren't contesters also buy amps, so it would be wrong
to judge the market for an amp by just looking at contesters!
Well, anyone really wanting to know why that specific amp doesn't
provide QSK capability should ask the manufacturer. Surely Flex has
good
reasons for it. In my previous post I outlined what I THINK these
reasons could be, but I'm just speculating. I have never talked to
anyone at Flex.
And I don't mean to put down CW or its enthusiastic followers! I think
that it's good that enough hams continue to cultivate this mode and
keep
it alive. The more variety we have, the better. But a manufacturer
doesn't have any obligation to optimize all his products for a specific
mode. Instead he might optimize SOME of them for CW, and others for
other modes. And typically manufacturers will choose what tradeoffs to
make according to what has the best market chances.
Manfred
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