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Topband: Full Moon " Evidence"

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Subject: Topband: Full Moon " Evidence"
From: (Tom Rauch)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 20:34:28 -0400
> I have some interesting evidence for you.  Wolf (DF2PY) is a prominent
> figure on 160 meters so I looked up DF2PY on the DX Summit Database. 
> Here is what I found when I selected any column, 160 meters and 1000
> listings. One month ago during the full moon DF2PY spotted N7UA(First
> West Coast), KC7V(First Arizona) and K7CA(blank).  This does not prove
> anything but this pattern is persistent.

Hi Don,

We *always* must use some sort of controlled test to verify theories 
or predictions, where we can isolate causes. This is especially true 
when many random variables affect results. Otherwise we may wind up 
with some really weird theories, like our birth sign in the Zodiac or 
Numerology affecting our success or disposition.

In the 60's Stew Perry (W1BB) suggested a full moon *ruined* 
conditions on 160! Just the opposite of the latest "theory". 

Here are solar conditions in the time period Wolf spotted and the 
worked west coast people:

SFI:158 A:5 frm 3 K:2 (19 nT) 0000 25 Sep
Frcst: No SWX storms are expected next 24h.
Obs: No SWX storms were observed last 24h.
Flare: 6h hi:C1(2000Z Sep24) 24h hi:C2(1600Z Sep24)
SSN: 209 (23 Sep 2002)
Au: 1 

We had low solar flux and no solar storm weather. The last number is 
the aurora level, and you can see it was 1. One is exceptionally low 
for aurora level.

We were coming into a flare, which generally means a large 
enhancement of 160 conditions on the leading edge of aurora and 
magnetic fields going "nuts".

When the aurora is one or two, especially when flux is low, I always 
find it much easier to work paths near the poles on 160 meters. None 
of that has anything to do with the moon! A slight flare can make 
things really wild.

Looking at low aurora level days, I almost always worked Japanese 
stations on those days this summer on 160. None of those days were at 
a full moon, but they were all with aurora levels of 3 or less.

I worked dozens of low power stations in northern Europe and even 
JT1CO during the September time when the Aurora was near or at 1. 
Looking back in my log, it repeats that I always work DX on paths 
near the mag poles when flux and aurora levels are low.

Checking my log, most of the really long haul or polar path stuff is 
NOT at a full moon. It is virtually always at a low aurora level, or 
just heading into a magnetic storm. 

 73, Tom W8JI 

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