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Re: Topband: [CQ-Contest] sunspot cycle

To:, "topband " <>
Subject: Re: Topband: [CQ-Contest] sunspot cycle
Date: Sun, 24 Mar 2019 18:04:50 -0400 (EDT)
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Hi Bill, 

The current computerized SWPC Solar Cycle Progression product 
is fatally flawed and an embarrassment to NOAA's scientists. 
Why they don't have the wisdom to remove it from their web site 
is beyond rational understanding or explanation. 

60 years of h istorical solar flux values are posted on the SILSO 
web site. The solar flux has never -- even for a single day -- 
approached 60, much less SWPC's forecasted 50s. 

The good news is that NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel 
will meet on April 5th. Later this year the Panel's forecast will 
replace SWPC's current forecast. 

Its likely that we're at least one year away from Solar Minimum, 
with many spotless days in our future through 2022 and perhaps 

Lacking a consensus Cycle 25 forecast, the SILSO Spotless Days 
web page provides a reasonable forecast of solar minimum. The 
web page forecasts 800 (+/- 224) spotless days during the Cycle 24-25 
transition with solar minimum in May 2020 (+/- 10 months). 

There have been 412 spotless days since the Cycle 24-25 transition 
began in 2016. During the Cycle 23-24 transition there were 508 
spotless days during four years before solar minimum in December 2008 
and 309 spotless days during the two years after solar minimum. 

The good news is that we get to enjoy 160 and 80 meters for at least 
three more years, maybe more. 


----- Original Message -----

From: "Bill kollenbaum via CQ-Contest" <> 
Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2019 7:24:12 PM 
Subject: [CQ-Contest] sunspot cycle 

The post was not about the demise of contesting, it was about sunspots numbers 
and propagation. If you look at the numbers, they predict a flux consistently 
in the 50s. I can't remember ever seeing a number that low. We have been 
banging around 70 or so for most of this year, with a few exception like those 
right now (around 80). Almost everyone seems to agree, that at that number 
conditions are not very good 
Of course we will always have some bands open, but if the null in the sunspots 
continue through 2022 it is generally thought that this cycle will be extremely 
low at the peak since there is a direct correlation between the length of the 
minimum and the strength of the next cycle. 
This may or may not have an effect on contesting. However, it is pretty easy to 
see that it has had an effect on daily operating. 

You have made other statements about the demise of contesting. It's not 

For example, 2900 QSO's from New Mexico in ARRL DX CW a few weekends ago. No 
sunspots. Great fun. 

Steve, N2IC 

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