[CCF] Atsimuuttikartat

[Timo Klimoff]

>   Keliennustekarttoihin palataan myöhemmin ja ne yritetään
>   saada framille. Ainakin tänään päivitetty ennuste lupasi hyvää,
>   su-ma eritoten. Onko jollakulla parempaa tietoa?

Solar flux on komeasti nousussa ja X1-luokan flare pamahti sunnuntaina
aiheuttaen, että näillä korvilla on odotettavissa häiriökeleja eli sopivasti
paranisivat viikonlopuksi. Mutta mutta. Tämänkin flaren aiheuttanut pilkku
10484 (joka on jo koko syklin top5:een kuuluva kooltaan) aiheuttaa ongelmia:
Comment added at 10:35 UTC on October 21: Development in the southeastern
part of region 10484 has caused another magnetic delta structure to form.
This is also the part of the region where penumbral area has increased the
most since midnight. The two main penumbrae could be merging, at least the
penumbraless area between them has decreased, especially in the eastern
section.
Region 10483 has redeveloped a magnetic delta structure, the main penumbra
has both negative and positive polarity spots.
The background x-ray flux has increased to the C2 level.
A large CME was observed off of the southeast limb beginning at 03:54 UTC in
LASCO C2 images. Its source is a region at or just behind the southeast
limb.
Solar wind speed, which had increased yesterday as the high speed stream
from the well defined eastern part of coronal hole CH63 became the dominant
solar wind influence, has been decreasing slowly all day.

Ja mikä pahinta: Major flares are likely and could occur anytime during the
next few days. There's a slight possibility of an X10+ proton flare.

Toivotaan, että tuollaista massiivista flarea ei tule ja mahdolliset
pienemmätkin häiriöt ko. pilkussa tapahtuvat tänään ja huomenna - tai sitten
vasta viikonloppuna.

73, Timo OH1NOA