[CQ-Contest] solar cycle progress and prediction

[Dick Green]

> The latest issue is indeed a pretty interesting document.
> Page 18 is worth printing and hanging on the wall of the 
> shack. It predicts solar flux values in the 70's from January 
> 2005 through December 2007. It shows that the monthly 
> smoothed values have fallen from about 238 to 125 in about 18 months.

FWIW, I recently did a little study of band-by-band results for selected New
England top-ten single-op stations in CQWW CW and ARRL DX CW correlated with
the smoothed sunspot numbers (SSN) for November and February from 1981
through 2007 (I used the projected SSN for November 2003 through 2007.) As
you can see in the following excerpt from my spreadsheet, there's quite a
consistent run-down to the bottom of the cycle:

            SSN				 %QSOs on 10m

Nov 1982	 95					26.3%
Nov 1983	 67					 2.7%
Nov 1984     25					 1.5%
Nov 1985     17					 0.3%
Nov 1986     15 (bottom of cycle)		 0.9%

Nov 1992	 74					20.0%
Nov 1993     41   				 2.1%
Nov 1994     26					 1.7%
Nov 1995     11					 0.2%
Nov 1996     10 (bottom of cycle)		 0.4%

Nov 2002     86					21.3%
Nov 2003     45 (predicted)
Nov 2004     24 (predicted)
Nov 2005     11 (predicted)
Nov 2006     06 (predicted)

The SSN correlates pretty closely on a 10-year interval. The QSO production
on 10M is also remarkably consistent. It seems to peak in the third year of
the decade ('82, '92, and '02), then drops like a stone the following year.
Results for other bands correlate nicely, too. For example, the percentage
of QSOs from 80m and 40m picks up considerably during the time 10m is gone.
So, we can reasonably expect 10m to be a bust and 80/40 to be very important
in CQWW this November. Of course, it's always possible that unusually good
propagation will yield more QSOs on 10m, but it is a good bet that
time/dollars put into 80m or 40m antennas over the next five years will
yield a much higher return than time/dollars put into 10m antennas. Not
surprisingly, 20m was the #1 or #2 band in percentage QSO production for 17
of the 22 years I studied. It's always good to be loud on 20! 

As we go forward, it will be interesting to see if the top and bottom band
percentages grow relative to 20m as a result of more super stations coming
on line.

73, Dick WC1M