[CQ-Contest] Major X-class Flare at 1955Z 4-XI-2003

[Tomas (NW7US)]

At 1955Z, 4-XI-2003, an X-class flare peaked from region 486.  Initial data from 
GEOS 12 indicates that the flare is an X18, while GEOS 10 shows it as X17.  
However, there is speculation (i.e., Thomas Giella (KN4LF), others) that it 
might be much stronger, as this event saturated the sensor for 11 minutes.  I 
have viewed preliminary images of this very bright and significant flare, and it 
is truly amazing.

If the flare is larger than the X17 flare from recent activity, this will become 
one of the two most powerful flares recorded.  The flare has caused extensive 
radio blackout conditions on most of the HF radio spectrum.  Ground wave 
communications is not significantly impacted, nor is line-of-sight VHF and 
above.

A type II Radio Emission began at 1942Z 4-XI-2003 with an estimated velocity of 
1268 km/s.  Interplanetary type II bursts are statistically strongly associated 
with fast CME and interplanetary shock waves (Cane, Shelley & Howard 1987).  
Thus, there is a chance that we will have at least a glancing blow from the side 
of the possible CME associated with this new flare.  I will update when more 
data is known.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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