[CQ-Contest] The word on the super X-class flare...

[Tomas (NW7US)]

I have just finished a talk with Christopher Balch from the Space Environment 
Center, NOAA, regarding the super flare from 1955Z, 4-XI-2003.  This flare 
saturated the instruments on the observing satellites for about 13 minutes, 
during the peak of the flare.  This has made an accurate measurement of the 
flare's intensity difficult.  The instruments stopped at X17.4.

The scientists and engineers who designed the original sensor equipment back in 
the 1970's had events that caused saturations at much lower levels.  They 
redesigned things to handle X17-class events, thinking that it would be enough.  
This time, it was not.

Since we do not have any accurate record of flare intensity prior to the 1970's, 
our perspective of this latest series of flares is somewhat limited.  Certainly, 
X-class flares of this magnitude are not regular events.  But, they certainly 
are not unheard of.  To pull out a rough estimate, but with very little 
confidence on this number, on how often we might see such activity, we think 
this is something we could see every 20 to 40 years.

Currently, as I write this, the Space Environment Center, who is the official 
"last word" on what a flare's classification becomes, is finalizing their 
analysis on this super flare.  Chris has obtained two likely candidates: Using a 
standard log-normal fit analysis, the flare was X25.  Using a result from an 
individual from the University of Colorado, Boulder, who analyzed HESSI data on 
the event ( http://hessi.ssl.berkeley.edu/ ), the flare was an X28.  The SEC has 
a procedure that Chris is finalizing, and validating.  He will announce the 
final reading later today.  Most likely, this flare will be somewhere between 
the X25 and X30 levels.

Certainly, the geomagnetic storming of the last few weeks is one of the highest 
in many years.  It is officially number six on the scale of intensity in the 
last 30 years.  The two major sunspot groups, the number of flares, and the CME 
activity makes this period the most active and intense of this solar cycle.  We 
have witnessed a truely spectacular historical moment.

What's coming down the line?  I usually base my forecasts on a 27-day solar 
rotation period.  What happens today in terms of geomagnetic activity is 
possibly what will occur 27 days from now.  Of course, sunspot and coronoal hole 
activity might decline duing that rotation period.  The outlook is that in about 
5 to 10 days, a sunspot group that had a lot of activity is going to rotate back 
around and start to influence space weather.  But the big question is: Will 
these huge sunspot groups that just left us retain enough energy to last the 27-
day rotation, to deliver another period of extreme solar weather?

NASA is planning to launch in November 2005 the "Stereo Mission" ( 
http://stereo.jhuapl.edu/mission/overview/overview.html ), which will place an 
observing space craft leading the Earth's orbit, and another space craft 
trailing the Earth, such that they will be able to see around the sun at what is 
coming and what has went.  This certainly will become a major tool in our 
forecasting of space weather, and propagation.

I will post my propagation forecast on http://prop.hfradio.org/ late today.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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