[CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Outlook for 6-XI-2003

[Tomas (NW7US)]

The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the X25+ flare of 4-XI-2003 should arrive 
anytime, today.  It will be a glancing blow, yet there is an expectation that it 
will be strong enough to trigger a major geomagnetic storm.  Then, tomorrow or 
Saturday the Earth may be exposed to a fast solar wind stream from a small low-
latitude coronal hole, now rotating in geoeffective position. This can maintain 
active to minor storm conditions for one or two days.  The Polar Cap Absorption 
(PCA) event is still active, but decreasing, possibly ending by the end of 6-XI-
2003.  However, if shock-accelerated protons increase the >10MeV proton flux due 
to the arrival of a CME later today, the PCA could be extended for another one 
to two days.  This will shut down over-the-pole and high-latitude propagation 
paths.

Solar activity has dropped over the last day, and the background X-ray levels 
are finally down in the B range.  This is making it better for the lower bands.  
The 10.7-cm flux is decreasing, as well, so the highest HF bands are less likely 
to propagate.


73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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