[CQ-Contest] Last day of CQ WW SSB - Propagation (UPDATE)

[Tomas (NW7US)]

I think that the attempt to post the following was lost in transition.  I am 
sending it again.  If you get two copies, my apologies.  I am also updating it:

Just as my original prediction ( http://hfradio.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=67 ) 
states, the contest weekend was good.  We are in the ending stretch, right now.

I have talked with various stations over the last 24 hours, asking, "how is your 
propagation?"  TI5A, for instance, said, "It is much better than we expected, 
and today (26) it is much better than yesterday."  That tracks with what others 
have been telling me.

My original forecast was that the initial night of the contest weekend would be 
rough, but then things would continue to improve, and that the IMF would stay 
mostly northward in orientation, making the Geomagnetic field settle down.  
Current Kp is at 2.  We did not have any geomagnetic storm for the last 24 
hours, or more.  My forecast was correct.  And the contest is NOT a bust.  What 
is more, the original forecast that I printed in the CQ Magazine column tracks 
closely - but not as "excellent" as was thought based on the 27-day solar cycle 
prediction.

There has been some flaring this weekend - which has closed down the lowest HF 
frequencies (but, who is going to use 160 or 80 during the middle of the day?).  
However, it seemed to me that 80 was fair, and 40 was better, yet.  This 
morning, I am DXing LA, California on AM Broadcast at 1600 UTC - and BBC on 7160 
kHz with a fair signal.  This latest flare is an M-class, and has very SLOWLY 
decreased in strength (this is an interesting topic, for another posting, 
sometime).  For most of the day yesterday, and again today, these X-ray levels 
have been prolonged and extended.  Yesterday, for example, the background X-ray 
level was at least in the C-class range.

Currently, from IPS, Australia: Global HF Propagation Conditions for 1500Z on 26 
Oct, 2003 are: Low Latitude: Normal; Mid Latitude: Normal; Hi Latitude: Fair-
Normal.  Bands from 10 meters to 40 meters is still hopping, from my location in 
the Pacific Northwest.

An X-Class flare occurred, possibly peaking at 1812Z 26 October 2003.  Radio 
blackout on the sunlit side of Earth is subsiding slowly, as it is a prolonged 
decay.

To see some K readings and the trend since the 24th: 
http://geo.phys.uit.no/knum/

What's in store for the next few days?  Other than the occassional flares:

26 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 235 / AP: 021
27 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 235 / AP: 037
28 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 230 / AP: 070

Just think!  What a GREAT flux level.  Some continued flaring will occur.  A new 
solar region has rotated into view but is rather "simple" and won't do much, we 
think.  A CME occurred at 0131 UTC 26 Oct 2003, and again at 0318 UTC.  These 
were geoeffective, and should impact the Earth's Magnetosphere sometime on 28 
October 2003.  Since it will hit head-on, it will increase the geomagnetic 
activity on the 28th.

Between then and now, DXing will be GREAT, inbetween the occassional flare.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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