[CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Update, 30-X-2003, 2000Z

[Tomas (NW7US)]

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with yesterday's X10-class flare (peak 
at 2049Z 29-X-2003) impacted the Earth's magnetosphere today at about 1700Z 30-
X-2003.  Kp index reading show 7 and 8 at many reporting stations.  Bz is at the 
moment negative.  At least a G4-level geomagnetic storm is in progress as well 
as a very strong proton event (PCA) and space radiation storm.  This space 
radiation storm has reached an S4 level on  29-X-2003, and is again on the rise.  
It is the second-most energetic event during this current solar cycle, 23.  
Expect this storm to coninue, especially with the prediction of further flare 
events.

The Aurora index is 10 (maximum), as I write this.  This indicates a very strong 
Aurora.  Look for continued AU propagation (reports from yesterday show VHF 
propagation via AU as high as 222 MHz) and visuals at high to some middle 
latitudes.  I expect a medium to high probability for visual aurora in northern 
states of the US, tonight.

Solar activity remains at extremely high levels.  Region 486 is now the largest 
sunspot complex of the solar cycle.  This very huge sunspot covers an area of 
over 7.8 billion square miles and there is some indication that it might 
continue to grow.  The flare potential is still very high and further X-class 
flares are possible, which will affect us until this region rotates over the 
western solar limb on 5-XI-2003.  Several M-class flares, and a number of C-
class have occurred already from this region, since the X10 flare.  Region 488 
has further developed and has merged with former region 493.  The region could 
produce X-class flares.  Some M-class and C-class flaring has occurred from this 
region, as well.

I agree with Thomas (KN4LF) and others that the X17 flare was historic.  But, I 
would say that this increase in solar activity is not uncommon during the 
decline of a solar cycle.  Other cycles have given us the same sort of 
excitement.  What's more, we're in the fall Aurora season.  Twice a year, near 
the equinox, the conditions are favorable for Aurora.  Such is the time now.  
Having the sun provide us with lots of aurora-causing events has given 
opportunity for some unexpected but welcomed VHF propagation, and visual light 
shows.

Overall conditions right now are rather poor.  I do hear some north/south paths 
on 11 meters open, but not much more than that.  WWV is non-existant at my 
location, except a faint fading whisper at 10 MHz.  Lower frequencies are a bit 
more alive.  The flux is nicely high, so when the geomagnetic fields settle down 
a bit, the higher level of ionization provided stronger openings on the HF 
bands, and higher in frequency.  Last night, I was hearing SW DX on as high as 
17 MHz.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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