[CQ-Contest] NW7US CQ WW SSB Propagation Update

[NW7US, Tomas]

Howdy, DX hounds.

The Sun has clearly quieted down considerably since the beginning of 2004.  
The end of Solar Cycle 23 is expected between 2006 and 2007, so we are far  
into the decline of the current cycle. We'll see an occasional coronal  
hole, and short-lived flare-ups of solar activity with associated coronal  
mass ejections.  But, they will be spaced farther apart than what we've  
seen even as recent as July of this year.

During October 2004, and especially during the last weekend of this month  
(the CQ WW SSB contest weekend), we should experience fair conditions.  We  
won't see high sunspot counts and the 10.7-cm flux will be averaging  
around 100 to 110.  This will mean that 20 meters will be the primary  
contest band, with 15 meters a player during the daylight hours, though  
with a lot less umph than the previous couple of years.  There will be  
some marginal activity on 10 meters.  The lower bands (40 through 160) are  
getting better, though.

During the middle of October, we'll see a bit of geomagnetic activity from  
a coronal hole, but nothing that will make conditions overly rough.  In  
general, this whole month, conditions will stay on a more-or-less even  
moderate level.

I keep a daily update of the "Last Minute Forecast" table at

http://hfradio.org/lastminute_propagation.html

which is part of the http://prop.hfradio.org suite of propagation resource  
pages.

I'll create updates as we get closer to the CQ WW SSB weekend.  And, I'll  
be posting my predictions for the CQ WW CW weekend, too.  Good luck,  
DXer's!

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
: Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website, software, database design - http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: Washington State Army MARS, State Army MARS Director - AAA0WA :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57,  AR Lighthouse Society 144 :