[CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Update: CQ WW SSB: 30-X-2004

[NW7US, Tomas]

Say 'hello' to Murphy.

Who would have thought that the Sun would wake up in a cranky mood, just  
as the contest gets under way?  Based on the 27-day rotation cycle, we did  
not expect the see a rise in flaring and geomagnetic activity on the scale  
that we are now seeing.

Just as the contest period started, active sunspot region 691 developed  
new polarities which spawned three successive M-class flares (30-X-2004:  
0323 UTC - M3.6, 0606 UTC - M4.5, 0909 UTC - M3.9) Then, at 1136 UTC, an  
X1.3 flare errupted, peaking at 1146 UTC.  A small enhancement of the  
proton flux is also observed in GOES data.  There are three regions that  
now have the type of magnetic structure that could spawn additional C-,  
M-, and X-class flares in the next 24 hours.  This flare up was totally  
unexpected by forecasters around the globe.

The geomagnetic activity, as measured by the planetary K index (Kp) has  
remained active, mostly at level 4.  This is due to the influence of the  
low-latitude coronal hole, and the strengthening of the solar wind speed  
and the increasing in strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF),  
which has fluctuated southward.  The same conditions will extend at least  
until tomorrow.

This is putting some brakes on low frequency performance, and clipping the  
wings of the higher band signals.  I am seeing contest spots from the DX  
clusters on 10 meters, and quite a bit more on 15 meters, as I write this  
bulletin (1350 UTC, 30-X-2004).  In the last two hours, 15 meters has been  
the most active on average, as reported by  
http://dx.dxers.info/activity.php - a great resource.  The low bands are  
not showing as high activity as might be expected - though that could be  
due to the lack of reporting by contest stations.


-- 

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
: Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website, software, database design - http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: Washington State Army MARS, State Army MARS Director - AAA0WA :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57,  AR Lighthouse Society 144 :