[CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Bulletin (with corrected dates) 18-I-2005 1520Z

nw7us at hfradio.org nw7us at hfradio.org
Tue Jan 18 10:21:12 EST 2005

The following is a corrected version of
NW7US Propagation Bulletin
18 January 2005 - 1520Z

Active solar region 10720 (or, just 720) has spawned a great number of  
flares.  So far, three of these unleashed coronal mass ejections directed  
toward Earth, and triggered proton events.  The latest flare to do this  
was an X3.8 flare, which caused an extreme proton storm that is still  
active.  The fast moving coronal mass ejection (initially measuring at a  
speed of over 1500 km/s, coming directly toward Earth) associated with  
this flare should arrive by the end of 18 January or during the first part  
of 19 January (UTC time).  This means, for North America, the initial  
shockwave should arrive this evening.

Currently, the sensor equipment aboard certain key observation satellites  
is saturated under the bombardment of protons due to the currently  
on-going extreme proton storm, which was triggered by the X3.8 flare.   
This makes it difficult to know what the current solar wind data is, or  
when the actual shock wave might arrive of this fast-moving CME.

This will elevate the geomagnetic activity level.  The Kp has been ranging  
between 3 and 7 already due to the first two CME arrivals.  When this  
third CME hits it will cause severe geomagnetic storm levels of activity  
(Kp >= 7).

Of course, this will trigger very energetic aurora, which should be  
viewable into the low-latitude regions.  Radio Aurora-mode propagation is  
very probable starting this evening.

MW propagation at my location is degraded, especially from N/S circuits. I  
am barely hearing Canadian stations that I normally DX without a problem.

HF propagation will be very limited when the shock wave hits.

More as new information become available.


73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
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: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI :
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