[CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Bulletin (with corrected dates)
nw7us at hfradio.org
nw7us at hfradio.org
Tue Jan 18 10:21:12 EST 2005
The following is a corrected version of
NW7US Propagation Bulletin
18 January 2005 - 1520Z
Active solar region 10720 (or, just 720) has spawned a great number of
flares. So far, three of these unleashed coronal mass ejections directed
toward Earth, and triggered proton events. The latest flare to do this
was an X3.8 flare, which caused an extreme proton storm that is still
active. The fast moving coronal mass ejection (initially measuring at a
speed of over 1500 km/s, coming directly toward Earth) associated with
this flare should arrive by the end of 18 January or during the first part
of 19 January (UTC time). This means, for North America, the initial
shockwave should arrive this evening.
Currently, the sensor equipment aboard certain key observation satellites
is saturated under the bombardment of protons due to the currently
on-going extreme proton storm, which was triggered by the X3.8 flare.
This makes it difficult to know what the current solar wind data is, or
when the actual shock wave might arrive of this fast-moving CME.
This will elevate the geomagnetic activity level. The Kp has been ranging
between 3 and 7 already due to the first two CME arrivals. When this
third CME hits it will cause severe geomagnetic storm levels of activity
(Kp >= 7).
Of course, this will trigger very energetic aurora, which should be
viewable into the low-latitude regions. Radio Aurora-mode propagation is
very probable starting this evening.
MW propagation at my location is degraded, especially from N/S circuits. I
am barely hearing Canadian stations that I normally DX without a problem.
HF propagation will be very limited when the shock wave hits.
More as new information become available.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 :
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