[CQ-Contest] ARRL SS Contest Trend Analysis

[hounds1234 at comcast.net]

RE analysis of SS participation:

You may wish to read or re-read the article:  "The Future of Contesting: Some 
Modest Predictions" by yours truly, N6ZFO, in the March, 2002 issue of the 
NCCC Jug -- available to all at www.nccc.cc.

At that time, age data was available on Tree's web pages for most SS participants.  
The  analysis combines actuarial data, availalbe from insurance companies, 
with age data and other trends in SS participation. 

Some of the conclusions:

--  with the same level of recruiting as in years prior to 2002, the SS participation would 
have declined by 18% in 2016 relative to the base year.

--  If each of ten contest clubs recruited 4 members / year, for a total of 40 new 
contesters each year, then the decline, by 2016, would be "only" 10%.

The article was prepared prior to the big SMC and NCCC ,and now PVRC, major
efforts of the past several years.

Someone with a little time on their hands could do an update.

73, Bill N6ZFO/6






 -------------- Original message ----------------------
From: "VE5ZX" <ve5zx at hotmail.com>
> Now that is an interesting analysis! Eric here is your data expressed in 
> cumulative total percentage of the number of participants be they 
> individuals, groups and clubs
> 
>           Range  &  Freq     Cum %
> CK 2001-2005=32       %100
> CK 1996-2000=39        % 97
> CK 1991-1995=49        % 94
> CK 1986-1990=47        % 89
> CK 1981-1985=40        % 86
> CK 1976-1980=144      % 82
> CK 1971-1975=125      % 70
> CK 1966-1970=133      % 60
> CK 1961-1965=192      % 49
> CK 1956-1960=198      % 33
> CK 1951-1955=138      % 16
> CK 1946-1950=32        %  5
> CK 1941-1945=2          %  2
> CK 1936-1940=14        %  2
> CK 1931-1935=7          %  1
> CK 1926-1930=2          %  0
> CK 1921-1925=1          %  0
> CK 1916-1920=0          %  0
> CK 1911-1915=0          %  0
> CK 1906-1910=2          %  0
> TOTAL        1197
> 
> It shows that 70% of the licences were granted more than 30 years ago. It 
> looks like there maybe a rapid decline in participation in the near future 
> unless something is done to ramp up the number of new participants..
> 
> We need more data like this to help us understand our community. Well done!
> 
> Syl
> 
> 
> Sylvan Katz - VE5ZX
> Saskatoon, SK
> 
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