[CQ-Contest] Contesting Extinction

[Jukka Klemola]

...
>Ev Tupis
>
>Paraphrasing Kenneth's post, "Using the number of log
>submissions as the criteria, VHF Contesting is on the
>decline, and HF Contesting is on the rise."

...
>> decline, and in fact DX contesting, and 
>> expecially DX contesting on CW, has never been more
>> popular than it is today.
>
>In the USA, the Amateur Radio population is divided,
>in a very lop-sided way:
>
>Total licenses      : 655,194
>Technician          : 320,499
>All other Classes   : 334,695
>Source: http://ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html

In Finland, and in Europe the Technicians have been given rights that
match U.S. Extra class.
Reasoning is hams do no longer need to know CW to go to HF.

Our Technician class exam was as tuff as our Extra class exam.
Thus no reason to keep them off HF with "full rights".

The current system has two classes: Entry-kind of license and as a
direct translation, General class.

Having to support just two classes is much easier for the authorities.
It lessens the paperwork some call bureaucracy.


Outlook:
1. HF CW contester community grows smaller and shifts more far away from
the U.S..
CW is no longer an exam requirement in West. Not even EU.
China has it, Russia has it.
In Europe we will still have a lot to work in 2015.
However, a lot depends on the ham population development in China. I
hope there are people that will make Radio Amateur more popular.

2. SSB contesting grows.
Maybe boosts strongly if the Technicians get HF privileges also
elsewhere than just in Europe.

3. The number of digi contesters will grow fastest.
There has to be some alternative to SSB. That is PSK and the other
digital communications.
Look at us: a growing population gets computers with sound cards. 
What more does one need to go digital?
Digital contesting capable hardware growth rate looks like a ground
plane!


Our hobby is on an upward trend at least next 10 years.
A lot depends on how ham hobby does against the other hobbies.
Contest of the hobbies is !


>Ev, W2EV


73,
Jukka OH6LI