[CQ-Contest] say it ain't so!

[Jimk8mr at aol.com]

CONSENSUS STATEMENT OF THE SOLAR CYCLE 24 PREDICTION PANEL 
 

March 20, 2007

The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel anticipates the solar minimum marking  
the onset of Cycle 24 will occur in March, 2008 (±6 months). The panel reached  
this conclusion due to the absence of expected signatures of minimum-like  
conditions on the Sun at the time of the panel meeting in March, 2007: there  
have been no high-latitude sunspots observed with the expected Cycle 24  
polarity; the configuration of the large scale white-light corona has not yet  relaxed 
to a simple dipole; the heliospheric current sheet has not yet  flattened; 
and activity measures, such as cosmic ray flux, radio flux, and  sunspot number, 
have not yet reached typical solar minimum values.

In light of the expected long interval until the onset of Cycle 24, the  
Prediction Panel has been unable to resolve a sufficient number of questions to  
reach a single, consensus prediction for the amplitude of the cycle. The  
deliberations of the panel supported two possible peak amplitudes for the  smoothed 
International Sunspot Number (Ri): Ri = 140 ±20 and Ri = 90 ±10.  Important 
questions to be resolved in the year following solar minimum will lead  to a 
consensus decision by the panel.

The panel agrees solar maximum will occur near October, 2011 for the large  
cycle (Ri=140) case and August, 2012 for the small cycle (Ri=90)  prediction.
 
 
 
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Statement_01.html
 



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