[CQ-Contest] Work Plans for contesting - useful?

[kr2q at optimum.net]

RE: Propagation tools for contesting

I took a look at this tool after it was first posted on this reflector.  Cute.  I guess it might be 
useful if (a) you're a novice contester/DXer or (b) you're heading out on a DxPed to part
of the world where you have never operated from before.

After I reviewed this tool for a couple minutes, looking at "my zone," I realized that there was
zero new here (for me).  Later that day, I chatted with the famous "chubby redhead" (as my
wife calls him), CQ Contest Hall of Famer, contest committee type, also from NNJ.  We both
had a good laugh about this "tool" confirming what we already knew in our sleep.

No offense to the author, but it was a rather big yawn....like, "so tell me something I don't know."

I have continued to read the comments...all very interesting.  I especially like the recent
defense (defence for my brothers across the pond), which notes that this prediction tool is
founded on inputs which are, themselves, also predictions.  Hmmm.

I am SURE that I am not the only one that has listened to or watched WWV numbers over the 
last many decades.  Equally, I am SURE that I am not the only one who has been on during
a contest, noticed things "going south" and then, an hour or two or three later, discovered 
that my direct observations DURING the contest were "confirmed" by the WWV numbers (or
wherever you get them from now).

So I really have to wonder just how useful such a tool is to the entrant while in the heat of
the battle.  Is it "cool?"  Sure!  Will it help me during a contest?  No.

So why send this "negative" post?  Because I see far too many folks becoming too mechanical
in how they perceive what the "best" method of contesting is or should be.  

In a recent K1AR column in CQ (I forget which one...but in the last couple months), he noted
basically the same thing, but on a broader scale.  Not unexpectedly, John is right; both in his
column and for this topic specifically.  Sometimes you just "know in your gut" that it's time
to check another band or direction.  Hourly updates based on predictions of predictions won't
get you there.  Nothing I had (or have) ever read about sex compares to "know-how" based 
on the real thing.

And a friendly reminder....please reread my first paragraph where I "hedge my bet."

And remember...the really weak guy calling you next weekend will be me!

de Doug KR2Q