[CQ-Contest] ARRL DX "Leveling, Handicapping, Equalizing"

Tom W8JI w8ji at w8ji.com
Sun Jul 3 09:52:40 PDT 2011 

The oldest intentional or political trick in the book, and the most common 
accidental unintentional mistake, is to use statistics or data that at 
casual glance looks compelling to support some argument when that data 
really has little to do with any perceived problem.

The correct way to handle this is to prove and quantify any difference 
caused by distance. In all the years this has been brought up, a simple 
easy-to-do verification experiment was never even attempted. Instead time is 
wasted over and over again comparing things that actually often mean nothing 
at all.

The most recent example was number of spots, the earliest example is who 
scored higher more often. :-)

Before we finished near the top here on 160 year after year, and beat the 
east coast year after year on 40, no one would have though a middle GA 
station with a path up the Appalachians could even place. Even a year ago 
W4ZV "predicted" the race to top spot would be between two east coast 
stations. We weren't even considered. I did this by thinking through 
problems, and thinking out of the box on receiving antennas. It took more 
hours of experiments and thought than it did actual antenna installation, 
and this gave everyone the chance to improve stations. It also didn't cost 
me a fortune in time or money. This all mostly home made stuff.

The sweetest part of competition is admitting things are less than perfect, 
finding and correcting mistakes or shortfalls, and doing better.

73 Tom



----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Hank Greeb" <n8xx at arrl.org>
To: <cq-contest at contesting.com>
Sent: Wednesday, August 03, 2011 9:02 AM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] ARRL DX "Leveling, Handicapping, Equalizing"


> From these data, one can only conclude that the people on the east
> coast are more competent contest operators than us dolts who live in
> other parts of the U.S.A.
>
> It's kinda hard to conclude anything else, particularly since the
> reflector did weird things with the formatting of these data.
>
> 73 de n8xx Hg
>
> On 7/1/2011 3:00 PM, w1md at cfl.rr.com wrote:
>> Message: 6
>> Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2011 10:25:53 -0400
>> From:<w1md at cfl.rr.com>
>> Subject: [CQ-Contest] ARRL DX "Leveling, Handicapping, Equalizing"
>> To: cq-contest at contesting.com
>> Message-ID:<20110701142553.4KK8H.4578.root at cdptpa-web14-z01>
>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
>>
>> So...the data is there...40+ years of it. Seems that it would be a fairly 
>> easy and straightforward process to use the results of previous years to 
>> come up with a "leveling, handicapping, equalizing" factor that would 
>> take into account the vast majority of factors...including Distance, 
>> Propagation, and those years where there were 'anomalies' that allowed a 
>> station outside of W1-3 and VE1-3 to get into the top ten.
>>
>> Sorry about the formatting...this is just 9 years of data (2002-2010) for 
>> the SOHP category.
>>
>> 9 out of 90 stations came from areas other than W1-3 or VE1-3 or roughly 
>> 10%
>> IN =3
>> VA = 2
>> CO = 1
>> STX = 1
>> WCF = 1
>> NM = 1
>>
>>
>> 1 K5ZD (W4PA, op) 6,173,244 4,454 462 WMA 1 1 KT1V (NT1N, op) 6,226,974 
>> 4,094 507 NH 1 1 K5ZD (W4PA, op) 6,588,960 4,240 518 WMA 1
>> 2 K1DG 5,629,746 4,027 466 NH 1 2 KQ2M 5,675,454 4,086 463 CT 1 2 N2NT 
>> 6,343,305 4,187 505 NNJ 2
>> 3 AA1K 5,172,453 4,019 429 DE 3 3 VY2ZM (K1ZM, op) 5,490,114 3,902 469 
>> MAR 3 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 5,060,160 3,514 480 WPA 3
>> 4 W9RE 5,063,502 3,898 433 IN 9 4 K1TO 5,480,952 4,042 452 WCF 4 4 KT1V 
>> 4,946,856 3,782 436 NH 1
>> 5 K1ZZ 5,045,175 3,957 425 CT 1 5 K5ZD (W4PA, op) 5,458,815 4,089 445 WMA 
>> 1 5 K3ZO 4,640,286 3,298 469 MDC 3
>> 6 N2IC 4,902,660 3,891 420 CO 0 6 N2NT 4,914,630 3,766 435 NNJ 2 6 W1WEF 
>> 4,569,642 3,234 471 CT 1
>> 7 W1WEF 4,854,462 3,686 439 CT 1 7 AA1K 4,461,795 3,419 435 DE 3 7 N2LT 
>> 4,361,880 3,260 446 NNJ 2
>> 8 K2UA 4,789,530 3,942 405 WNY 2 8 K3ZO 4,357,794 3,347 434 MDC 3 8 WC1M 
>> 4,170,264 3,374 412 NH 1
>> 9 K5GN 4,628,520 3,588 430 STX 5 9 K2UA 4,212,600 3,304 425 WNY 2 9 KQ2M 
>> 4,155,624 3,267 424 CT 1
>> 10 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 4,446,192 3,376 439 WPA 3 10 VY2TT 4,043,034 3,186 
>> 423 MAR 10 K1RM 4,120,200 3,052 450 CT 1
>> 2,002 2,003 2,004
>>
>>
>> 1 VY2ZM (K1ZM, op) 5,382,234 3,978 451 MAR 1 N9RV 4,714,356 3,596 437 IN 
>> 9 1 VY2PA 4,863,075 3,925 413 MAR
>> 2 KQ2M 4,806,459 3,633 441 CT 1 2 N2NT 4,635,210 3,670 421 NNJ 2 2 N2NT 
>> 4,026,048 3,226 416 NNJ 2
>> 3 N2NT 4,660,608 3,664 424 NNJ 2 3 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 4,462,128 3,443 432 
>> WPA 3 3 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 3,445,200 2,900 396 WPA 3
>> 4 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 4,366,941 3,331 437 WPA 3 4 AA1K 4,035,045 3,241 415 
>> DE 3 4 AA1K 3,315,510 2,805 394 DE 3
>> 5 AA1K 4,190,670 3,366 415 DE 3 5 VE3DZ 3,209,856 2,572 416 ON 5 K1ZZ 
>> 3,128,625 2,781 375 CT 1
>> 6 K1ZZ 3,850,344 3,027 424 CT 1 6 VY2TT (K6LA, op) 3,198,555 2,755 387 
>> MAR 6 VY2TT 3,042,660 2,669 380 MAR
>> 7 K5ZD 3,782,652 3,121 404 WMA 1 7 W4RX (K0DQ, op) 3,175,326 2,607 406 VA 
>> 4 7 VC3O (VE3AT, op) 2,793,168 2,282 408 ON
>> 8 W3GRF (K0DQ, op) 3,764,988 2,946 426 VA 4 8 K3ZO 3,165,855 2,741 385 
>> MDC 3 8 WC1M 2,766,510 2,605 354 NH 1
>> 9 N2LT 3,687,420 3,020 407 NNJ 2 9 VC3A (VE3AT, op) 3,107,160 2,520 411 
>> ON 9 VE3DZ 2,653,992 2,234 396 ON
>> 10 WC1M 3,634,536 3,044 398 NH 1 10 K1ZZ 3,103,290 2,523 410 CT 1 10 N2LT 
>> 2,642,400 2,400 367 NNJ 2
>> 2,005 2,006 2,007
>>
>>
>> 1 K1KI 3,593,274 3,103 386 CT 1 1 VY2ZM (K0DQ, op) 4,892,940 4,006 410 
>> MAR 1 VY2ZM 5,549,292 4,656 399 MAR
>> 2 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 3,557,358 3,137 378 WPA 3 2 NN3W (@ N3HBX) 4,066,260 
>> 3,392 404 MDC 3 2 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 5,514,120 4,362 424 WPA 3
>> 3 K1ZM 3,501,762 3,121 374 EMA 1 3 K3CR (LZ4AX, op) 3,868,128 3,186 407 
>> WPA 3 3 VY2TT 5,218,695 4,557 387 MAR
>> 4 N2NT 3,381,240 2,966 380 NNJ 2 4 K5ZD (W1UE, op) 3,717,186 3,361 374 
>> WMA 1 4 K1RX 4,984,317 4,474 377 NH 1
>> 5 AA1K 2,985,831 2,757 361 DE 3 5 AA1K 3,637,740 3,235 380 DE 3 5 N2IC 
>> 4,757,745 3,796 419 NM 5
>> 6 K1ZZ 2,851,785 2,495 381 CT 1 6 K1ZZ 3,634,962 3,150 386 CT 1 6 K1ZZ 
>> 4,702,365 3,785 415 CT 1
>> 7 VC3E (VE3AT, op) 2,802,618 2,639 354 ON 7 WC1M 3,192,783 3,158 341 NH 1 
>> 7 K5ZD 4,586,838 3,972 386 WMA 1
>> 8 WC1M 2,515,032 2,687 312 NH 1 8 VY2TT (K6LA, op) 3,092,202 3,026 346 
>> MAR 8 W9RE 4,552,119 3,909 393 IN 9
>> 9 N2LT 2,277,330 2,266 335 NNJ 2 9 N2LT 2,933,856 2,692 366 NNJ 2 9 WC1M 
>> 4,413,225 4,108 361 NH 1
>> 10 K3ZO 2,209,920 2,302 320 MDC 3 10 W1WEF 2,684,079 2,720 331 CT 1 10 
>> VX3AT (VE3AT, op) 4,398,198 3,639 406 ON
>> 2,008 2,009 2,010
>>
>>
>> W1MD
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> Message: 7
>> Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2011 08:55:51 -0700
>> From: w7dra at juno.com
>> Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Distance scoring
>> To: vk4ti at yahoo.com
>> Cc: w8ji at w8ji.com, cq-contest at contesting.com
>> Message-ID:<20110701.085617.989.1373900 at mailpop09.vgs.untd.com>
>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
>>
>> a few years ago i worked a European contest and received a 34th place
>> certif (SOSB40 LP).
>>
>> it is displayed proudly in the shack.....
>>
>> mike w7dra
>> ____________________________________________________________
>> Penny Stock Jumping 3000%
>> Sign up to the #1 voted penny stock newsletter for free today!
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>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> Message: 8
>> Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2011 11:55:09 -0600
>> From: "W4ZW at Comcast.net"<w4zw at comcast.net>
>> Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] DX Contest Handicap Proposal
>> To: "hankkier at aol.com"<hankkier at aol.com>
>> Cc: "w2lc at twcny.rr.com"<w2lc at twcny.rr.com>,
>> "cq-contest at contesting.com"<cq-contest at contesting.com>
>> Message-ID:<E3B62895-05EE-45E9-8A7C-49D73D1D619B at comcast.net>
>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
>>
>>> Something similar to the rating and slope system for golf courses would 
>>> fit when viewed from a regional basis.  This would compensate for 
>>> propagation differences by region.  Maybe a handicap system based on 
>>> region?  But posting finishes by region in addition to overall, a la SS 
>>> would work.  I still favor the shorter time flight for those of us who 
>>> are time restricted (and OOTCers!)
>>> As a long time contester with limited time, I have always competed just 
>>> for the fun of seeing how well I can do in the time I have available. I 
>>> have operated from all over the US and much of the world and have 
>>> experienced the wide disparity of propagation that exists and not 
>>> generally not based on  distance.
>> Jon, RA/W4ZW
>> Moscow
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
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>>
>> End of CQ-Contest Digest, Vol 103, Issue 3
>> ******************************************
>>
>>
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