[CQ-Contest] [NCCC] Have NCCC and PVRC ruined SS?

[Art Boyars]

Bill,

An interesting analysis.  I'm taking the liberty of including it with my
reply here on the CQ-Contest Reflector (even though you sent only to me and
NCCC).

My impression is that the high participation of NCCC/PVRC is
noticeable.  Some anecdotal data --  Somewhere in an SS Soapbox or 3830
Reflector post (I think in 2011), there are comments about all the MDC/VA
stations. I've heard similar comments even during the SS ("Another MDC.
There sure are a lot of you guys.").  I think the "Rare Sections" lists in
the ARRL reports shows VA and MD tops in QSOs.

My question is: Does it make SS less fun for everybody else? Still no
replies from them.

Below my sig are some data I dug out.  Below that is your analysis.

73, Art K3KU

...........................................................................................

I was thinking mostly about 2012.  From the score rumors (based on 3830
Reflector postings) it seemed that PVRC was way ahead, and there was some
curiosity here that maybe you guys had not made a serious effort.  The Club
Scores in ARRL's preliminary report for SS 'Phone sure looked that way.
(These include CW and 'Phone, right?)


2012 Unlimited Category                      Points                Entries

Potomac Valley Radio Club           20,112,044            267
Northern California Contest Club    8,116,740           107


But wait!  Maybe PVRC just had a super-duper turnout in 2012.  So I looked
back a couple of years.

2011

Potomac Valley Radio Club            22,897,542       291

Northern California Contest Club      14,750,346    189



2010

Potomac Valley Radio Club            21,489,580        273

Northern California Contest Club    20,159,038      286



2009

Potomac Valley Radio Club             24,356,974        302

Northern California Contest Club    22,712,498     332



Looks like a downward trend in entries by both Clubs from 2009 to 2012. (I
took enough short courses in statistics and enough courses in probability
to know that I have no idea what this data means.)
...................................................................................................

On Thu, Jan 31, 2013 at 3:35 PM, Bill Haddon <haddon.bill at gmail.com> wrote:

> Let's look at some actual numbers to assess the extent to which NCCC's not
> highlighting Sweepstakes influenced the Sweepstakes, over-all:
>
> For 2011 (one of the years cited by the K3KU message):
>
> Total points in Sweepstakes  CW:  ~85,000,000
>         Points from PVRC:                   10,113,000
>         Points from NCCC:                     7,970,000
>
> Suppose NCCC had emphasized SS and that NCCC tied PVRC:
>     Increase in Sweepstakes scores under this scenario:     ~2.6% of total
> SS CW points.
>
> It does appear that NCCC contributed a bit less in 2012 (can't tell easily
> since the CW and Phone scores are not individually summed in the NCCC
> database), but I'd guess NCCC generated about 6,000,000 CW points (but many
> members' scores went to MLDXCC).  So there might be about a 5% impact on
> overall Sweepstakes activity from our failure to stress the Sweepstakes in
> 2012.  A relatively small effect.
>
> 73 Bill n6zfo