[CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar Cycle 24?

[David Gilbert]

Hi, Bob.  Great post.

I regularly check out a web site called ventusky.com, which shows 
incredibly complex rain, wind, and storm surge patterns for the entire 
world.   It displays forecasts by the hour out as far as ten days, and I 
am constantly amazed at how accurate it is.  You can click the button 
for ten days in the future, and then watch a storm develop over the next 
ten days almost identical to the prediction. The power of that 
computing, and the science that developed the models that feed it, 
almost scares the crap out of me.  Some day we will have that for 
sunspot cycles, and in spite of what VE5RA thinks we're getting closer 
to having it for generalized long term global weather predictions.

73,
Dave  AB7E



On 11/16/2017 6:57 PM, Bob Shohet, KQ2M wrote:
>
> I think back to the evolution of weather forecasting.  In the late 60’s major storm prediction was hit and miss – mostly miss.  In the early 70’s the National Weather Service (NWS) began to use computerized weather models to attempt to forecast major storms and had many high profile misses.  But by the late ‘70’s, it was getting to the point where they were able to forecast several epic Northeast blizzards a few days ahead of time – which finally got the attention of the rest of the field that eschewed computer use.  Not long after, major companies began to hire private weather forecasters who were able to develop and use the latest technology to make business relevant forecasts.  Now, even when an important forecast turns out incorrect, it is unimaginable NOT to continue using them.
>
> It was incredible to me that this past Summer, Florida was able to begin to preparations for Hurricane Irma 8 days in advance and 3 days before it even reached the Caribbean!
>
>